Almost exactly one year ago today, on January 13, 2023, Poten's published their “forecast issue”, a Weekly Opinion that listed what they thought could be the five key tanker market drivers for 2023 (“Our 2023 Crystal Ball”). In this issue they will review each of those projections and determine which ones they got right, which ones they got wrong and which ones they did not see coming.
Regarding the key developments that they missed; they have to start with the conflict in the Middle East. Nobody predicted Hamas’s attack, Israel’s response, and the Houthi’s subsequently attacking vessels transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb straits. This had an impact on the market in the fourth quarter of 2023 and continues to be a factor this year. They also did not foresee the OPEC+ production cuts as well as the growing tension between Venezuela and Guyana.
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